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EDF & Gazprom

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Germany, Italy and now France?

After Germany and Italy via its oil firm ENI,© EDF© EDF state-controlled French energy giant Électricité de France (EDF) now also enters into a partnership with Russian Gazprom. EDF will pay for Russian gas and access to pipelines with electricity and part-ownership of its nuclear reactors (L'Expansion: EDF serait prêt à ouvrir à Gazprom le marché francais). Gazprom can expect about 28bn KwH of electricity from EDF in return for its gas (at the current price level of about 0.05 € per KwH that is equivalent to 1.4bn Euros). Currently France receives 1.4bn m³ of natural gas per year from Russia, but up to now Gazprom is selling only 500m m³ on the free market. For the first time a foreign company is invited to the French energy market all the while France more than most European Union members shields its national energy champions from competition on the home market. Russian vice-premier Igor Setchin announced in December 2009 that deliveries are to be increased to 6bn m³ annually. Natural gas from Russia would thus become the major source not only for countries in Eastern Europe, but three of the four big EU members, Germany, Italy and now France would see their dependence on Russian supplies increase substantially.

 

Being only the third major European player to gain a hold in Russian pipeline projects, EDF apparently had to make astonishing concessions for it to be offered a share in the consortium to build the South Stream - pipeline. The southern counterpart to North Stream is a direct competitor to the European proposal of Nabucco which will bring natural gas from the Caspian Sea region to Europe. Gazprom is quite successful in getting separate deals with single EU members and their principal energy firms, controlled by the respective governments trying to outmaneuver a common effort to secure gas supplies in the future.

Gazprom's interest in bringing the French state-owned company on board the pipeline consortium and thus giving another major EU member state a stake in its success is quite straightforward.© Gazprom© Gazprom First this will reduce its dependence on transit countries in Central & Eastern Europe which take a cooler stance towards Moscow. It can also strengthen older members states of the European Union that can play a role as counterweights to the new members that readily connect their quarrels with Russia with EU policy decisions towards their big eastern neighbour. In December 2009 Russia tried to bully Austrian energy firm OMV when it unsuccessfully made the renewal of Austrian Airlines' license to fly over Russian territory contingent on the Austrian oil firm abandonning the Nabucco pipeline project. (L'Expansion:  Le match des futurs gazoducs européens). By ceding part of its 50 % stake in the South Stream AG Russian gas company Gazprom will in effect no longer control the consortium, but the move might still bolster its position vis-à-vis its business partners. Now it has two partners it will be able to play off against each other.

What is in it for Éléctricité de France?

But why would Électricité de France be willing to offer such generous terms for only a 10 % share in the South Stream pipeline? Well, the company and with it France's government must be quite desperate to let the Gazprom which is owned by the Russian government onto to its home market. Even French yoghurt production is a deemed strategic sector to be protected fiercely against foreign ownership.

First, EDF lacks the financial resources to pursue further expansion onto other European markets and will one day face foreign competition at home with the slow but relentless liberalization of energy markets. In the last three years its debt went up from EUR 16.3bn in 2007 to EUR 42.5bn. That is due in no small part to acquisitions like that of British Energy last year and similar purchases in Belgium (SPE) and the United States (Constellation Energy). For it to keep a solid financial structure with a net debt to EBIT ratio of between 2.5 - 3, EDF will have to reduce its net debt by about EUR 5bn until the end of this year (Les Echos: EDF : résultats 2009 en hausse grâce à British Energy). In 2009 the business activities were insufficient to finance the investments of the firm with liquid assets amounting to EUR 6.8bn last year whereas investment were EUR 7.2bn. (Les Echos: Les activités françaises ne financent plus elles-mêmes leurs investissements). The energy giant is facing an ageing nuclear parc that will necessitate increasing investment outlays in the near to medium term future. As it has neglected the upkeep of its nuclear reactors in the past, it now needs to redouble its efforts. The operations of its foreign subsidiaries have been far more profitable with their operating results improved by 19 % to EUR 8bn thus making forays into new markets more attractive. EDF expects a considerable rise in its EBITDA this year, but on the other hand results are forecast to be flat for its two principal market France and Germany.

As EDF is highly indebted the deal with Gazprom will allow it to participate in the pipelines project with as few capital as possible. Viewed from that point it is quite understandable that the French are offering such generous terms to Gazprom. This in effect a bet that the stake in South Stream will in the long term be a more valuable asset than its dominating position on France's energy market which will become contested under the EU's liberalization demands sooner or later. One way to improve the financial situation of the firm would be to increase electricity tariffs in France. But this will be politically unacceptable to the French government as presidential elections beckon in 2012. Prices rises would have to be extended over several years so as to not anger consumers, i.e. voters, too much, but that also means that there is no real window of opportunity to push through unpleasant measures in one go right after an election. In addition, French businesses have been granted the right to revert to the old tariff structure of regulated prices after they have found out that changing to a market based price system can also mean rising electricity prices.

But EDF's management does pursue more long-term strategic objectives. The deal will give the firm a foothold in a major pipeline project together with presumably privileged access to the gas being shipped. As the  Nabucco pipeline is still far from a reality encountering regularly political obstacles, France's electrictiy champion is simply securing further options for the future. And then there is the rivalry with its counterpart 'Gaz de France' that for its part is in talks, again with Gazprom, about a similar 10 % stake in North Stream. Finally the cooperation with the Russian gaz giant might give EDF an opportunity to invest in Russia and aquire a stake in Inter RAO, a power generation company (Nefte Compass: Gazprom ready to break the rules for France).

Interestingly, French state-owned companies EDF and GDF-Suez take part in two different pipeline projects but not in the European initiative Nabucco. It seems that the French government is not really interested in a common European approach towards security of supply and the energy relations with Russia. But France only follows the advances of Germany and Italy that have both cut separate deals with Gazprom ignoring concerns and wishes of many of the new EU members states in Central & Eastern Europe. At this stage a true common energy strategy on the European level clearly does not exist. As long as certain member states and their energy firms make their own deals with foreign suppliers irrespective of the consequences for the bargaining power of other member countries towards these same suppliers this idea will elusive.

 

 

 

Last Updated on Tuesday, 28 December 2010 10:13
 

ArmorGroup - Lessons Learned?

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Abstract

ArmorGroups problems with staff discipline and morale in its Kabul embassy security detail root in the logic of economics applied without proper restraints in a high risk environment. This article traces some of the machinations at work in this well-known case.

A picture from a better past: ArmorGroup employee with UK insignia | CC-BY-SA-NCA picture from a better past: ArmorGroup employee with UK insignia | CC-BY-SA-NC
The embarrassing accounts of the inadequate and damaging conduct of the PSC ArmorGroup may serve as an example how to do one's best to lose a war over hearts and minds. This article looks back at the developments that led to the fiasko in 2009.

The security giant G4S, created as a merger of Group 4 Falck and Securicor in 2004, bought ArmorGroup in late 2008. At that time, their paramount USD 189 million contract - guarding the US embassy in Kabul - just had vanished. The case illustrates well the risks associated with contracting: ArmorGroup had in the past tried to squeeze the most it could get out of the Kabul contract. Since personel is the most important cost factor these expenses had to come down regardless of any externalities. Shifts were long and staff housing was primitive, not to say squalid. Tim Lynch from the Free Range International blog put his experience with the ever troublesome embassy contract in bold words:

"The first company to win the contract was MVM and their genius plan was to bring in South African passport holding Vamba tribal fighters from Namibia to work as the senior guards and "english (sic!) speaking" junior guards from Peru. The South African plan met the terms of the contract but turned out to be a disaster. When the Peruvians arrived not one of them could speak a word of English. I was there for that too and am thus unable to go into the details. When ArmorGroup won they were heading down the same path as MVM but at the last minute the CEO came in, immediately fired his management team and entered into negotiations with the existing project manager for him and his crew to come aboard. I am hesitant to go into detail due to an acute congenital fear of lawyers. Runs in my family according to my Father, but suffice it say the pay for new joins was low and did not favor Americans who cannot be paid on leave by an American company without becoming an employee with the full benefit and tax load. That lasted a little less than a year until the PM got bored and left which caused the immediate exodus of all the old guards who Armor group wanted to be rid of so they could bring in guys at a much reduced daily rate. You get what you pay for in this industry and Armor Group was not paying much."

The human factor seems to play an important role and taking it into account is not as easy as it may seem due to the jittery nature of predictability and discipline of the employees.

"The main reason why managing these contracts is so difficult is that it is impossible to stay ahead of the stupidity curve your men will generate. There is no way to anticipate it because some of these guys do the most unbelievably stupid things sober; add alcohol and the potential for Darwin Award level stupidity goes up exponentially."

These shortcomings have been on the record before. As early as April 2008 two former employees (James Sauer and Peter Martino)  announced that they would sue their former employer after being fired for raising some of the more pressing issues they encountered. Their lawyer Debra Katz from Katz, Marshall and Banks was quoted by CBS: "This is a clear-cut case of corporate greed taking priority over national security concerns." Since the Government Accountability Project also filed the case, it can hardly have come as a big surprise.

Before, two senior staff members (James Gordon, former director of operations at ArmorGroup, and John Gorman, a former ArmorGroup manager in Kabul) filed a whistleblower retaliation case and alleged shortcomings, failures, misjudgements and outright fraud by the company. According to Gordon, "ArmorGroup’s goal was to maximize their profits, provide a fig leaf of security at the embassy, and pray to God that nobody got killed." In a press conference they alleged ArmorGroup was well aware of its own fraudulent actions. They intentionally employed guards who were not speaking English to cut costs - at the expense of embassy security. They also ran an American shell corporation in order to win contracts intended only for American companies. Even prostitution was not off-limits to them. They also alleged that the State Department knew about at least some of the company’s illicit practices. Not in defense of but in explaining the contractor's behaviour, Tim Lynch aka babatim points out the squalid and wretched living conditions the contractors have to endure:

"The pay thing is a problem which can be worked through with good on the ground leadership and incentives for people who are on their second, third or fourth year of the contract; the real problem is with the living conditions and job requirements of the guard force.  The average living space per man in Camp Sullivan is less than  the square footage required for inmates in federal penitentiaries.  I put that in writing in a memo to the RSO when the camp was being built which may help explain the stained relationship I had with him.  The recreation facilities are inadequate and the gym full of third rate Turkish equipment.  There is no space on the camp for the men to do anything outside of their crammed barracks and they have little ability to get off camp.  When you are designing camps to house hundreds of guards for years at a time you have to pay attention to their morale recreation and welfare needs which is something the military excels at.  If you do not think through what they are going to do off duty as thoroughly as their on duty tasks than you are set up to fail."

For the record: The averade cell in the US seems to have around 50 square feet. Add virtualy non-existant recreational facilities, comparably low pay, long shifts under imminent danger of being shot or blown up and you have at least some of your staff cracking. No time soon is the pain going to end, since it is costly in time, coordination and money to switch contractors in the middle of a hostile environment like Afghanistan. Furthermore, we will probably have some of the "old boys" around, as Frank Schaddelee, deputy project manager at Camp Sullivan explaines in an email to his subordinates:

"When the current contract option year expires on 30 June 2010, a 6 month extension will kick in. This will allow time for the newly selected contractor to be able to stand up by 1 January 2011. [...] What this means to the vast majority of personnel here is that you will have right of first refusal, which means for most of you this change from one contractor to another will be mostly transparent - you will continue your employment but change uniforms."

Sadly, this is not the only incident involving ArmorGroup personel, alcoholic beverages and problems with discipline. Mister Fitzsimmons, who served eight years as a paratrooper in the British Army, seems to have cracked (because of severe PTSD, contracted while serving in Iraq, his relatives claim). While this might be relevant for the Iraqi legal system, it is of no concern to the employer of Mr. Fitzsimmons, since the Defense Base Act only remedies for his condition. Bad for him, that the insurance companies in charge apparently know their turf. It remains to be seen, if Mr. Fitzsimmons is able to uphold his version of the story which he transmitted from jail via nine text messages. At the moment he is tested by Iraqi medical staff for evidence of his PTSD-claims.

Preliminary Conclusion

There are special considerations to be made when supplementing armies or police forces with private contractors. Contracting provides certain benefits (total cost, deployment time, specialisation etc.)But the claim that market forces will inevitably produce a better outcome for the client. No-bid contracts are an obvious possible exception to this rule of thumb. If only very few firms are able or willing to bid for a contract because they try to access an established market, they have to cut costs somewhere. In the security industry, the holy grail is to find decent manpower to a bargain price. But for the american high-value contracts (like training the ANA, guarding the Bagdad green zone or the Kabul embassy) applicants have to have language as well as some policing skills added to their fighting skills. The pool of highly trained individuals with these additional skills is shrinking. Venezuelan commandos trained at the school of the americas were a perfect example. But their price tag is growing for years and profit-orientated companies bargain on employing cheaper staff in even cheaper housing without losing their contracts.

Two important mechanisms come into play:
lock-in: As seen above, it's not trivial to switch contractors - even more those in the more big and sensitive contracts. Keep in mind that every member of a security detail, every trainer and every simple guard has to be checked, trained and vetted for his task. Teams have to be set up and routines to be established. The list goes on and all this can take months.

Information deficit: Fog of war has to be taken into account even if deployment takes place e.g. at the embassy of the U. S. Obviously there is a conflict of interest for the chief of a security detail when it comes to report misconduct. Especially when it does not directly translate to mission impairment (like drinking, hazing and/or generally behaving rude.)

In the long run even minor but consistent abberations may prove dangerous to the long term success of the mission. When weighting efficiency vs. effectivity in security, the advice bare market forces give have to be taken with a big pinch of salt.

Last Updated on Monday, 27 December 2010 20:50
 

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