Germany, Italy and now France?
After Germany and Italy via its oil firm ENI,
© EDF state-controlled French energy giant Électricité de France (EDF) now also enters into a partnership with Russian Gazprom. EDF will pay for Russian gas and access to pipelines with electricity and part-ownership of its nuclear reactors (L'Expansion: EDF serait prêt à ouvrir à Gazprom le marché francais). Gazprom can expect about 28bn KwH of electricity from EDF in return for its gas (at the current price level of about 0.05 € per KwH that is equivalent to 1.4bn Euros). Currently France receives 1.4bn m³ of natural gas per year from Russia, but up to now Gazprom is selling only 500m m³ on the free market. For the first time a foreign company is invited to the French energy market all the while France more than most European Union members shields its national energy champions from competition on the home market. Russian vice-premier Igor Setchin announced in December 2009 that deliveries are to be increased to 6bn m³ annually. Natural gas from Russia would thus become the major source not only for countries in Eastern Europe, but three of the four big EU members, Germany, Italy and now France would see their dependence on Russian supplies increase substantially.
Being only the third major European player to gain a hold in Russian pipeline projects, EDF apparently had to make astonishing concessions for it to be offered a share in the consortium to build the South Stream - pipeline. The southern counterpart to North Stream is a direct competitor to the European proposal of Nabucco which will bring natural gas from the Caspian Sea region to Europe. Gazprom is quite successful in getting separate deals with single EU members and their principal energy firms, controlled by the respective governments trying to outmaneuver a common effort to secure gas supplies in the future.
Gazprom's interest in bringing the French state-owned company on board the pipeline consortium and thus giving another major EU member state a stake in its success is quite straightforward.
© Gazprom First this will reduce its dependence on transit countries in Central & Eastern Europe which take a cooler stance towards Moscow. It can also strengthen older members states of the European Union that can play a role as counterweights to the new members that readily connect their quarrels with Russia with EU policy decisions towards their big eastern neighbour. In December 2009 Russia tried to bully Austrian energy firm OMV when it unsuccessfully made the renewal of Austrian Airlines' license to fly over Russian territory contingent on the Austrian oil firm abandonning the Nabucco pipeline project. (L'Expansion: Le match des futurs gazoducs européens). By ceding part of its 50 % stake in the South Stream AG Russian gas company Gazprom will in effect no longer control the consortium, but the move might still bolster its position vis-à-vis its business partners. Now it has two partners it will be able to play off against each other.
What is in it for Éléctricité de France?
But why would Électricité de France be willing to offer such generous terms for only a 10 % share in the South Stream pipeline? Well, the company and with it France's government must be quite desperate to let the Gazprom which is owned by the Russian government onto to its home market. Even French yoghurt production is a deemed strategic sector to be protected fiercely against foreign ownership.
First, EDF lacks the financial resources to pursue further expansion onto other European markets and will one day face foreign competition at home with the slow but relentless liberalization of energy markets. In the last three years its debt went up from EUR 16.3bn in 2007 to EUR 42.5bn. That is due in no small part to acquisitions like that of British Energy last year and similar purchases in Belgium (SPE) and the United States (Constellation Energy). For it to keep a solid financial structure with a net debt to EBIT ratio of between 2.5 - 3, EDF will have to reduce its net debt by about EUR 5bn until the end of this year (Les Echos: EDF : résultats 2009 en hausse grâce à British Energy). In 2009 the business activities were insufficient to finance the investments of the firm with liquid assets amounting to EUR 6.8bn last year whereas investment were EUR 7.2bn. (Les Echos: Les activités françaises ne financent plus elles-mêmes leurs investissements). The energy giant is facing an ageing nuclear parc that will necessitate increasing investment outlays in the near to medium term future. As it has neglected the upkeep of its nuclear reactors in the past, it now needs to redouble its efforts. The operations of its foreign subsidiaries have been far more profitable with their operating results improved by 19 % to EUR 8bn thus making forays into new markets more attractive. EDF expects a considerable rise in its EBITDA this year, but on the other hand results are forecast to be flat for its two principal market France and Germany.
As EDF is highly indebted the deal with Gazprom will allow it to participate in the pipelines project with as few capital as possible. Viewed from that point it is quite understandable that the French are offering such generous terms to Gazprom. This in effect a bet that the stake in South Stream will in the long term be a more valuable asset than its dominating position on France's energy market which will become contested under the EU's liberalization demands sooner or later. One way to improve the financial situation of the firm would be to increase electricity tariffs in France. But this will be politically unacceptable to the French government as presidential elections beckon in 2012. Prices rises would have to be extended over several years so as to not anger consumers, i.e. voters, too much, but that also means that there is no real window of opportunity to push through unpleasant measures in one go right after an election. In addition, French businesses have been granted the right to revert to the old tariff structure of regulated prices after they have found out that changing to a market based price system can also mean rising electricity prices.
But EDF's management does pursue more long-term strategic objectives. The deal will give the firm a foothold in a major pipeline project together with presumably privileged access to the gas being shipped. As the Nabucco pipeline is still far from a reality encountering regularly political obstacles, France's electrictiy champion is simply securing further options for the future. And then there is the rivalry with its counterpart 'Gaz de France' that for its part is in talks, again with Gazprom, about a similar 10 % stake in North Stream. Finally the cooperation with the Russian gaz giant might give EDF an opportunity to invest in Russia and aquire a stake in Inter RAO, a power generation company (Nefte Compass: Gazprom ready to break the rules for France).
Interestingly, French state-owned companies EDF and GDF-Suez take part in two different pipeline projects but not in the European initiative Nabucco. It seems that the French government is not really interested in a common European approach towards security of supply and the energy relations with Russia. But France only follows the advances of Germany and Italy that have both cut separate deals with Gazprom ignoring concerns and wishes of many of the new EU members states in Central & Eastern Europe. At this stage a true common energy strategy on the European level clearly does not exist. As long as certain member states and their energy firms make their own deals with foreign suppliers irrespective of the consequences for the bargaining power of other member countries towards these same suppliers this idea will elusive.






